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May 28, 2026Communications Earth & EnvironmentOpen Access

Uncertainties in global hydrological and climate models challenge future estimates of crop water use and sustainability

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Authors

QSQiming SunFBFrancesca BassaniMTMarta Tuninetti

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Overview

Multi-model analysis quantifies how uncertainties affect crop water needs and sustainability, indicating significant variability in assessments.

Key Points

  • The aim is to assess how uncertainties in global climate and hydrological models impact estimates of crop water needs and sustainability.
  • Performed a multi-model analysis of climate and hydrological models.
  • Quantified uncertainty in crop water requirements based on model outputs.
  • Analyzed blue and green water footprints under various scenarios.
  • End-of-century global uncertainty spreads of ~18% for green water and ~51% for blue water footprints relative to ensemble means.
  • Blue water sustainability variability ranged from 250% to 451%, depending on model choices and scenarios.
  • Model uncertainty impacts are more pronounced at finer spatial scales, with hydrological models dominating blue water assessments.

Cite This Study

Sun et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a17dcbb3fad632b0f9d975dhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03621-w
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