Ahilyanagar district (formerly Ahmednagar), located in the semi-arid zone of Maharashtra, India, is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall for its predominantly rain fed agriculture. This study presents a comprehensive trend analysis and statistical assessment of rainfall patterns in the district over the period 1990 to 2024. Using taluka wise rainfall data from official district records and India Meteorological Department (IMD) sources, the analysis evaluates temporal distribution, spatial variability, and long-term trends. The district receives an average annual rainfall of approximately 501 to 562 mm, with over 85 to 90% occurring during the southwest monsoon season (June to September). Significant spatial variation is observed, with western talukas such as Akole recording higher precipitation due to orographic influence from the Sahyadri ranges, while eastern and central talukas experience comparatively lower and more erratic rainfall. Statistical parameters reveal high inter-annual variability, with the coefficient of variation (CV) ranging from 24% to 99% across talukas, indicating substantial unpredictability. Trend analysis employing the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator shows mostly non-significant trends at the district level, though some talukas exhibit slight increasing tendencies in July rainfall and mixed patterns in other months. The Z score method was applied to identify drought and wet anomalies, highlighting frequent moderate to severe dry conditions in years such as 2003 and 2014, contrasted with notably wet years like 1990, 1998, and 2010. The findings underscore the persistent vulnerability of Ahilyanagar district to rainfall variability and climate extremes. This assessment provides valuable insights for developing targeted water management strategies, drought early warning systems, and climate-resilient agricultural practices in the region.
Nikita Thorat (Tue,) studied this question.