A Novel Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Model Based on Improved Ensemble Learning

The development of renewable energy is vital for addressing future climate change and environmental degradation. Nevertheless, the irregular and fluctuating essential features of wind power presents a considerable barrier to grid operational stability. Hence, precise prediction of wind energy output is crucial for improving power system management, boosting the reliability of the supply, and minimizing reserve expenditure. This study presents a predictive model designed for predicting short-term wind speeds using a stacking ensemble approach, which is based on an enhanced Multi-Feature Zebra Optimization Algorithm (IZOA-Stacking). In the data preprocessing phase, to minimize computational costs and prevent overfitting, a module tailored to the various features affecting wind power is developed for the IZOA-Stacking model. Grey relational analysis and Pearson correlation analysis are employed to determine and filter feature correlations. Critically, the preprocessing module demonstrates strong robustness: the One-Class Support Vector Machine (OneSVM) model is applied to identify and replace 100% of anomalous wind speed data, which leads to a substantial and measurable increase in feature correlation and overall model performance. For instance, when retaining wind speed features, the One-Class Support Vector Machine (OneSVM) model is employed to eliminate anomalous wind speed data. During model construction, a stacking ensemble learning strategy integrates multiple prediction models, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) net-works, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), ridge regression (RR), and Residual Networks (ResNets). This integration leverages the predictive strengths of each model. Additionally, the improved Zebra Optimization Algorithm (ZOA) optimizes the hyperparameters of each constituent model, further enhancing forecasting accuracy. The findings suggest that the proposed model demonstrates better performance than reference competitor models with regard to predictive accuracy.