Exports, imports, growth and causality: a study of Slovakia

In this article, we analyse the trade–growth nexus for Slovakia. This country represents a critical case for such research because it is one of the most open economies in the world; by several measures it is the most open economy in the EU, with the most Eurocentric trade, and has maintained one of the best growth performances within the EU over a sustained period of time. In contrast to most contributions to the trade–growth literature, we analyse all six possible causal relationships between Slovakia’s exports, imports and growth, using the technique developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995), on quarterly data from 1997Q1 to 2014Q4. We find evidence supporting both the export-led-growth hypothesis and the import-led-growth hypothesis. None of the other four relationships was found to be significant.