Economic Voting and the Welfare State: A Cross-National Analysis

We examine the question of economic voting in the major industrial democracies. Using pooled time series data for 17 nations from 1960 to 1987, we argue that the magnitude and nature of the relationship between economic conditions and the vote depends upon the level of welfare state development. We find that (a) in countries with low to moderate levels of welfare spending, the economy has a more dramatic effect on the vote when things are good than when things are bad, and (b) the economy plays less of a role in states with high levels of spending, regardless of the direction of economic change. The implications for voting behavior, democratic accountability, and welfare policy are discussed.