The Mediterranean winter storms are intensified by the thermal gradient between the warm sea and intrusions of cold continental air masses. The thermal gradient reflects atmospheric conditions as well as the seasonal heat which is stored in the upper sea. Atmospheric conditions are difficult to predict, yet the heat storage can be measured in the beginning of the winter season. A fair correlation ( R = 0.55) was found between the heat storage in the southeast Mediterranean and winter precipitation, and remarkable correlation ( R = 0.9) was found between heat storage depletion and precipitation. This allows us to consider the upper heat storage as an index for weather predictions. Small heat storage is associated with annual precipitation which does not exceed the average. Large heat storage will precede winters which are not dryer than the average.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Tzvetkov et al. (1982) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 5 related papers. Consider them for comparative context:
More from Water Resources Research