Aggregation bias and the capacity for formal crime control: The determinants of total and disaggregated police force size in Milwaukee, 1934–1987

Recent longitudinal analyses of total police force size, both cross and within jurisdictions, raise serious questions about the explanatory power of the rational choice and conflict theories of crime control. Generally the empirical literature suggests that current levels of police force size are explained well by previous manpower levels and are relatively unresponsive to changes in the social structure of macro social units. This study explores the possibility that the failure to decompose police force size into its component parts may be masking the influence of structural conditions on crime control bureaucracies. We examine changes, over time, in the size of the total and disaggregated (patrol, detective, and civilian) police force in Milwaukee from 1934 to 1987. The findings suggest that police administrators may have more discretion to make adjustments to specific units than to total manpower levels. We discuss the implications of these results for rational choice and conflict theories.