In this article we further develop the theory for a stochastic model for the citation process in the presence of obsolescence to predict the future citation pattern of individual papers in a collection. More precisely, we investigate the conditional distribution—and its mean—of the number of citations to a paper after time t, given the number of citations it has received up to time t . In an important parametric case it is shown that the expected number of future citations is a linear function of the current number, this being interpretable as an example of a success‐breeds‐success phenomenon.
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Quentin L. Burrell (2003) studied this question.
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