Grades and Graduation: A Longitudinal Risk Perspective to Identify Student Dropouts

Studies of student risk of school dropout have shown that present predictors of at-risk status do not accurately identify a large percentage of students who eventually drop out. Through the analysis of the entire Grade 1–12 longitudinal cohort-based grading histories of the class of 2006 for two school districts in the United States, the author extends past longitudinal conceptions of dropout to a longitudinal risk perspective, using survival analysis, life tables, and discrete-time hazard modeling to appropriately account for student graduation, transfer, or dropout. The risk of dropout began in Grade 7, with the most hazardous years at Grades 8 and 11. A novel calculation of teacher-assigned grades, noncumulative GPA, is identified as a strong predictor of student dropout.