Simulating present and future snowmelt runoff in the Kabul River Basin under climate change scenarios using the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM)

Snow-dominated river basins play a crucial role in sustaining water resources and agricultural productivity, yet they are highly sensitive to climate change, particularly to variability in temperature and precipitation. The Kabul River Basin (KRB) relies on the seasonal rivers’ discharge to sustain irrigated agriculture, which supports local livelihoods and food security under highly variable hydro-climatic conditions. The study employs the Snow Runoff Model (SRM), an effective tool to investigate climate change-induced impacts on snowmelt runoff in data-scarce regions like KRB. The model utilized the MODIS snow cover products and hydro-climatic datasets to simulate the daily runoff of the Kabul River for mid-21st (2040–2065) and late-21st (2081 to 2100) centuries, under three Shared Socio-economic Scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The findings show that the SRM effectively simulated runoff in the KRB, attaining Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies (NSE) of 0.85 during calibration (2008 to 2013) and 0.86 during validation (2014–2018). Furthermore, under future climate change scenarios, the projected mean annual discharge indicates an increase of 14–32% in the mid-21st century as well as 13–48% in the late-21st century across SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. This study provides valuable insights for water resource managers and policymakers about sustainable water management and climate-resilient interventions in the KRB.