Ground Delays from Lightning Ramp Closures and Decision Uncertainties

Analyses are presented that provide a first quantitative look at the impacts of lightning-related ramp closures on departing and arriving air traffic. Ramp closures are a necessity to ensure the safety of outdoor personnel servicing gate-side aircraft. Halting outdoor work delays air traffic and may cause ripple effects beyond the impacted airport. Today’s ramp closure decision-making process is burdened with uncertainty related to the procedures and their implementation, and the lightning data used to trigger ramp closures. This uncertainty needs to be accounted for, as it has implications for ensuring personnel safety and minimizing avoidable operational inefficiencies. Our initial results highlight the fact that lightning ramp closures can exert substantial impacts on air traffic. Moreover, the choice of safety procedure and varied sources of lightning information yield large uncertainty that renders operators unsure as to whether or not their approach is safe and effective. Additional research will help refine the assessment of lightning ramp closure impacts and provide a perspective with other convective storm impacts. A better diagnosis of lightning threats and the prediction of such threats into the near future will enable more consistent and proactive decisions.