The GRACE risk score provided the best predictive accuracy for death or MI at 1 year (AUC 0.715; 95% CI 0.672-0.756) and identified high-risk patients benefiting most from revascularization.
Cohort (n=460)
No
Do TIMI, PURSUIT, and GRACE risk scores accurately predict 1-year death or MI and identify patients who benefit from early myocardial revascularization in NSTE-ACS?
The GRACE risk score provides the best predictive accuracy for 1-year death or MI in NSTE-ACS patients and helps identify high-risk individuals who benefit most from early myocardial revascularization.
Effect estimate: AUC 0.715 (95% CI 0.672-0.756)
AIMS: Regarding prognosis, patients with a non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (ACS) are a very heterogeneous population, with varying risks of early and long-term adverse events. Early risk stratification at admission seems to be essential for a tailored therapeutic strategy. We sought to compare the prognostic value of three ACS risk scores (RSs) and their ability to predict benefit from myocardial revascularization performed during initial hospitalization. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 460 consecutive patients admitted to our coronary care unit with an ACS age: 63+/-11 years, 21.5% female, 55% with myocardial infarction (MI). For each patient, the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI), Platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa in Unstable agina: Receptor Suppression Using Integrilin (PURSUIT), and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) RSs were calculated using specific variables collected at admission. Their prognostic value was evaluated by the combined endpoint of death or MI at 1 year. The best cut-off value for each RS, calculated with receiver operating characteristic curves, was used to assess the impact of myocardial revascularization on the combined incidence of death or MI. Death or MI at 1 year was 15.4% (32 deaths/49 MIs). The best predictive accuracy for death or MI at 1 year was obtained by the GRACE RS (AUC) area under the curve: 0.715; confidence interval (CI: 0.672-0.756) but the performance of the PURSUIT RS (AUC: 0.630; CI: 0.584-0.674), and TIMI RS (AUC: 0.585; CI: 0.539-0.631) was also good. We found a statistically significant interaction between the risk stratified by the best cut-off value for the GRACE and PURSUIT RSs and myocardial revascularization, with a better prognosis for the high-risk patients. The high-risk patients represented 36.7, 28.7, and 57.8% of the population, for the GRACE, PURSUIT, and TIMI RSs, respectively. CONCLUSION: The RSs studied demonstrated a good predictive accuracy for death or MI at 1 year and enabled the identification of high-risk subsets of patients who will benefit most from myocardial revascularization performed during initial hospital stay.
Gonçalves et al. (2005) conducted a cohort in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) (n=460). TIMI, PURSUIT, and GRACE risk scores was evaluated on Death or MI at 1 year (AUC 0.715, 95% CI 0.672-0.756). The GRACE risk score provided the best predictive accuracy for death or MI at 1 year (AUC 0.715; 95% CI 0.672-0.756) and identified high-risk patients benefiting most from revascularization.