Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
Forward pricing is a primary role of livestock futures markets. A semi‐strong form test of efficiency examines whether or not the prices in a market reflect all publicly available information. An econometric forecasting model is constructed to serve as a norm against which to test futures market forward‐pricing abilities. Utilizing alternative methods of evaluation, results demonstrate that the live‐hog futures market cannot be relied upon to reflect accurately and consistently subsequent cash prices; hence, it is inefficient.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Leuthold et al. (1979) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 10 related papers. Consider them for comparative context: