Rural Settlement Surface Evolution: Cape Province, 1865–1970

Rural settlement surfaces in Cape Province for the years 1865, 1891, 1921, 1951 and 1970 are derived from census data. Appropriate theory and empirical studies enable the creation of hypotheses proposing regularities in the surfaces, namely an inverse relationship between settlement density and distance to both Cape Town and Port Elizabeth, and their probable variation through time. Trend surface analysis confirms these density declines and notes the presence of an additional regional variable, namely a north-south environmental distinction. Political developments and local environmental variations are suggested as explanations of overestimated and underestimated areas. A process model to be used for form simulation is proposed.