Research is presented on the prospective longitudinal prediction of marital dissolution. First, a cascade toward marital dissolution is described. Second, the cascade is predicted with variables from a balance theory of marriage. Third, there are process and perception (the distance and isolation cascades) cascades related to the cascade toward dissolution. The importance of "flooding " is discussed, as well as a mechanism through which negative perceptions (which are 2 dimensional) become global and stable and through which the entire history of the marriage is recast negatively. The role of physiology is outlined. A theory is presented in which a "core triad of balance " is formulated in terms of 3 weakly related thermostats (connected by catastrophe theory) and related to the distance and isolation cascade. Implications for a minimal marital therapy are discussed.
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John M. Gottman (1993) studied this question.
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