Self-prediction: Exploring the parameters of accuracy.

We conducted four studies to explore people's self-prediction processes. Study I examined the types of information people report using when making self-predictions. Five categories of information were determined. Studies 2 and 3 examined the relation between the use of different categories of information and self-prediction accuracy. Using correlational and experimental methodologies, these two studies demonstrated the utility of attending to personal base rate and personal disposition information in formulating accurate self-predictions. Individual differences in accuracy as a func-tion of public and private self-consciousness were also evident. Study 4 found that more certain self-predictions, as well as predictions that were distinct from what was expected for the average individ-ual, were more accurate. Overall, the findings suggest the importance of attending to individuating information in formulating accurate self-predictions. The traditional model of psychological assessment empha-sizes the use of trained evaluators to formulate predictions about a person on the basis of testing data, historical infor-mation, and clinical judgment. To date, however, there has been much controversy and debate over the utility of efforts in the