The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy: Linking an Econometric Model with Theory

In this paper, the authors outline a method, termed 'theoretical reconstruction,' which allows the system properties of any econometric macromodel to be related to a simpler theoretical model. First, elements of the econometric model which involve significant additional theoretical complexity compared to the theory model are removed. This process continues until the properties of the 'deconstructed' econometric model match those of the reference theory. Second, the econometric model is gradually reconstructed, noting at each point how each element of additional complexity influences the model properties. The technique is illustrated using fiscal policy changes and the U.K. econometric model COMPACT. Coauthors are Julia Darby, Jonathan Ireland, and Ottavio Ricchi.