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Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? By Philip E. Tetlock. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005. 352p. 45. 00 cloth, 19. 95 paper. This is a wonderful and important book. Philip Tetlock is a political psychologist who has a knack for innovative research projects (e. g. , his earlier work on how people cope with trade-offs in politics). In this book, he addresses a question that would scare away more timid souls: How well do experts predict political and economic events?
Gerald Gaus (Tue,) studied this question.