Prostate cancer incidence rates, trends, and treatment related to prostate-specific antigen screening recommendations in the United States

Changes in US prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening guidelines have impacted prostate cancer (PCa) incidence rates and trends. This study shows corresponding changes in PCa incidence rates and describes treatment patterns by tumor stage, age, and race/ethnicity. Analyses were based on 777,152 cases diagnosed in 17 population-based tumor registries in the SEER Program of the US National Cancer Institute, 2007–2021. Rates were age adjusted and trends assessed using annual percent change and joinpoint regression. PCa age-adjusted incidence rates (per 100,000) fell from 165.8 in 2007 to 101 in 2014 (APC=-6.51, p<0.05) and then rose to 121.2 in 2021 (APC=1.87, p< 0.05). The significant fall and rise in rates appeared in ages 55–69 and ≥70, all racial/ethnic groups (except in Hispanics during 2014–2021), and in local/regional stage. PCa incidence rates by tumor stage, age, and race/ethnicity were presented and discussed. A few PCa cases were identified through autopsy or death certificate among the racial/ethnic groups (0.68 %-1.37 %). Unstaged cases identified through sources other than autopsy or death certificate significantly varied by race/ethnicity, ranging from 4.13 % for non-Hispanic (NH) Whites to 9.5 % for Hispanic (Chi-square p <.0001). In 2017–2021, surgery occurred in 33 % of cases (primarily in local/regional cases, inversely associated with age), radiation in 30 % of cases (increasing with age in local/regional stage cases and decreasing with age in distant stage cases), and chemotherapy in 2 % of cases (<1 % in local/regional stage cases and 9 %-38 % for age groups in distant stage cases). Several racial/ethnic differences in treatment exist, such as NH Blacks (vs. NH Whites) with local/regional disease were significantly less likely to receive surgery and more likely to receive radiation. Understanding trends and patterns of PCa rates and treatment among patients by tumor stage, age, and race/ethnicity can guide public health planning in relation to screening and treatment. • PCa incidence rates decreased (35 %-46 %) during 2007–2014 in all race/ethnic groups. • PCa incidence rates increased (1 %-20 %) during 2014–2021 in all race/ethnic groups. • Distant staged PCa increased during 2007–2021 in all racial/ethnic groups and unstaged increased in Hispanics. • Surgery is less common or recommended and more likely refused in non-Hispanic (NH) Blacks (vs. NH Whites). • All racial/ethnic groups (vs. NH Whites) are more likely to refuse recommended radiation.