Multinational Naval Cooperation in Northeast Asia: Some Plausible Considerations for 2010 Based on What We Know in 1994

The future of the US-Korean security relationship is very solid, but it will have more multilateral dimensions and less of a purely bilateral focus in the future than it had in the past. US-Korean relations could evolve under any of three primary scenarios: a stalemate on the Korean peninsula in which a divided Korea continues with neither peace nor war; a bloody reunification which might take the peninsula perhaps a decade from which to recover; or a peaceful reunification a fa Germany. The United States hopes to induce changes in the North Korean side by drawing Pyongyang into the international economic and security community, breaking down its isolation and, in the process, paving the way for peaceful reunification. The multi lateralization of the security dialogue in Northeast Asia could take many forms: an enlarged and strengthened APEC; a security-focused ASEAN regional forum; an Asian Pacific treaty organization a La NATO; a trilateral US-Japan Korea security pact; or, most likely, a building block approach of overlapping, multilateral institutions. Multilateral naval cooperation could take several forms involving formalized alliance relationships, situational cooperation associated with a specific crisis or war, coordinated peacetime activities, and in the form of regional policy support. Enhancing transparency of naval operations and exchanging confidence and security-building measures would be important elements. The net effect of these measures would be to enhance Korean security and also to maintain the US role as a vital Asia-Pacific power.