Testing the 1995 Binary Black Hole Model of Oj287

In 1995, a binary black hole model was proposed for the quasar OJ287, where the smaller secondary black hole impacts the accretion disk of the primary black hole twice during its 12 yr orbit and causes a double peak of optical outbursts. The model predicted four major outbursts and one minor outburst during the period 1996–2010. All five have now been observed. In this paper, we ask how accurate the predictions were. We use the latest optical observations from Tuorla Observatory and the KVA telescope at La Palma together with previously published data to construct a light curve for this period. We average the data in 0.04 yr bins, and subtract the observed flux from the 1995 model flux at each bin. We find that the residuals are small: they are well described by random noise of amplitude 1.4 mJy. This level is small compared with the amplitudes of the major outbursts, 5–7 mJy. Ignoring the noise, the binary model explains the optical data remarkably well.