Parameter estimation for closed-loop lumped parameter models of the systemic circulation using synthetic data

% error using time series data, while errors using clinical index data could reach over 100%. With 5% normally distributed noise the accuracy was limited to be within 10% error for the five most sensitive parameters, while the four least sensitive parameters were unreliably estimated for waveform data. The three least sensitive parameters were particularly challenging to estimate so these should be prioritized for measurement. Cost functions based on time series such as pressure waveforms, were found to give better parameter estimates than cost functions based on standard indices used in clinical assessment of the cardiovascular system, for example stroke volume (SV) and pulse pressure (PP). Averaged parameter estimate errors were reduced by several orders of magnitude by choosing waveforms for noiseless synthetic data. Also when measurement data were noisy, the parameter estimation procedure based on continuous waveforms was more accurate than that based on clinical indices. By application of the stepwise subset reduction method we demonstrated that by the addition of venous pressure to the cost function, or conversely fixing the systemic venous compliance parameter at an accurate value improved all parameter estimates, especially the diastolic filling parameters which have least influence on the aortic pressure.