Predicting post-stroke pneumonia: the PANTHERIS score

OBJECTIVES: Stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) is a common complication with a known negative impact on neurological outcome. We developed a score to identify patients at highest risk of SAP in order to promote prophylactic measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a cohort study on a neurological intensive care unit in patients suffering from acute ischemic MCA infarction. Association of predefined demographics, comorbidities, and clinical characteristics with SAP was investigated using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Between 2003 and 2010, a total of 335 patients were included in this analysis. Frequency of SAP was 31.3%. A 12-point scoring system was developed based on the following factors: Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) [GCS < 9 = 5, GCS 9-12 = 2, GCS > 12 = 0], age [<60 = 0, 60-80 = 1, >80 = 2], increase in systolic arterial blood pressure >200 mmHg within the first 24 h after admission [no = 0, yes = 2], and white blood cell count >11.000/μl [no = 0, yes = 3]. The score revealed excellent discrimination (AUC = 0.85) and calibration (Nagelkerke's R² = 0.46) properties. Predictive properties were reproduced in an internal validation group. CONCLUSIONS: The PANTHERIS score is a simple scoring system for the prediction of SAP based on easy-to-assess parameters. By identifying patients at high risk, it may guide intense monitoring or prophylactic measures. This score needs to be validated within external datasets.