Fiscal Policy and Educational Attainment in the United States: A Generational Accounting Perspective

In this paper we investigate the consequences of the rise in educational attainment on US generational accounts. We build on the 1995 existing accounts and disaggregate them per schooling level. Contrary to medium‐ and high‐skill newborns, we show that low‐skill newborns are characterized by negative generational accounts. Compared to the results obtained with the traditional methodology, our baseline forecast is more optimistic. Nevertheless, the rise in educational attainment is not strong enough to restore the generational balance. Balancing the budget requires increasing taxes by 1.2% or reducing transfers by 2.7%. Our results are robust to the main assumptions.