Valence Politics and Electoral Choice in Britain, 2010

This paper presents the results of analyses of forces shaping electoral choice in the 2010 British general election. The analyses are based primarily on data gathered in the Campaign Internet Panel Survey (CIPS) that was conducted as part of the 2010 British Election Study (BES). Tests of rival models of electoral choice reveal that, as in earlier British elections, a valence politics model provides a strong explanation of voting decisions. However, as in those earlier contests, a model based on the spatial modelling tradition also contributes to understanding how voters made up their minds in 2010. The paper concludes by reprising major findings and discussing why the Conservatives failed to secure a majority in a context seemingly ideally suited for them to do so.