Causality and Migration: A Statistical Resolution of the "Chicken or Egg Fowl-up"

In regional economics the relationship between migration and changes in employment or employment growth is of fundamental interest. This relationship is essentially a question of causality as to whether follow or follow which will be answered in this paper using time series statistical methodology. Before proceeding to the specifics of this statistical test of causality it is necessary to review briefly previous migration and employment growth models and studies and note their position with respect to the causality question and how if at all this position was arrived at statistically or theoretically. Most models which have considered migration and employment growth can be divided into three groups with respect to their conclusions regarding causality: (1) unidirectional causality running from employment growth to migration or those which believe follow (2) unidirectional causality running from migration to employment growth or those which believe follow and (3) the recent bidirectional studies which consider jobs and people interrelated or simultaneous. The essence of this paper is to present and employ a specific statistical test which can distinguish between these three positions regarding causality and the results will support follow causality. (excerpt)