Key result
COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions alter EV-D68 dynamics, but modeling suggests a low 2023 outbreak risk.
Why the study?
EV-D68 dynamics were perturbed by COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions, presenting an opportunity to explore endemic infection dynamics and predict short- and long-term transmission.
Observational
Yes
COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions perturbed EV-D68 dynamics, with modeling suggesting a low likelihood of a large outbreak in 2023.
Supports routine EV-D68 surveillance without heightened 2023 alerts; leaves open long-term post-NPI dynamics.
Recent outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections, and their causal linkage with acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), continue to pose a serious public health concern. During 2020 and 2021, the dynamics of EV-D68 and other pathogens have been significantly perturbed by non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19; this perturbation presents a powerful natural experiment for exploring the dynamics of these endemic infections. In this study, we analyzed publicly available data on EV-D68 infections, originally collected through the New Vaccine Surveillance Network, to predict their short- and long-term dynamics following the COVID-19 interventions. Although long-term predictions are sensitive to our assumptions about underlying dynamics and changes in contact rates during the NPI periods, the likelihood of a large outbreak in 2023 appears to be low. Comprehensive surveillance data are needed to accurately characterize future dynamics of EV-D68. The limited incidence of AFM cases in 2022, despite large EV-D68 outbreaks, poses further questions for the timing of the next AFM outbreaks.
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Park et al. (2023) conducted an observational in Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections. COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions was evaluated on Short- and long-term dynamics of EV-D68. COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions significantly perturbed enterovirus D68 dynamics, but modeling of surveillance data suggests the likelihood of a large EV-D68 outbreak in 2023 is low.
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