Spatial and temporal aspects of agricultural sustainability in the semi‐arid tropics: a case study in Mbeere district, Eastern Kenya

A study was conducted in the semi‐arid Mbeere district, Eastern Kenya, to determine spatial and temporal variability of crop yields and climatic factors and their impacts on sustainability of semi‐arid agriculture. Spatial aspects were assessed by conducting a survey of on‐farm crop yields and using a computer model (QUEFTS) to predict maize yields from soil chemical indices. Temporal aspects were studied using time‐series data (rainfall, temperature and crop yields). The study did not find a significant correlation between farmers' actual yields and QUEFTS predictions, and soil nutrients were thus not the only factors influencing maize yields in the study area. Other yield‐reducing factors (climate and management) not accounted for in the QUEFTS model played a role. Grain yields of staple food crops were highly variable, fluctuating in time and space, and suboptimal. Particular aspects of rainfall (e.g. the short rains, for cowpeas and beans) were more important than mean annual rainfall in determining crop yields, and factors other than rainfall and soil fertility apparently played a role. The observed low grain yields, large yield gaps and high rainfall variability challenge the sustainability of these farming systems.