Subjective Trajectories for Self-Rated Health as a Predictor of Change in Physical Health Over Time: Results from an 18-Year Longitudinal Study

Drawing on social-cognitive and lifespan development perspectives, we examined how individuals view their health as unfolding across time, using a three-wave longitudinal study of American adults (n = 2386; M age = 55.47 years; 55.9% female). Self-rated health (SRH) was perceived to be declining across subjective temporal periods (recollected past, current, anticipated future), particularly by older (vs. younger) adults. Such perceived declines were negatively biased compared to actual changes in SRH over time, especially among older (vs. younger) adults. Physical health (chronic conditions, daily limitations, symptom frequency) worsened across time, with steeper declines for older (vs. younger) adults. Consistent with stereotype embodiment, longitudinal modeling revealed that subjective perceptions of declining SRH predicted actual declines in physical health over time. This study extends previous research and theory on the temporally extended self- and age-related stereotypes by demonstrating the value of a subjective temporal perspective to understanding changes in health across time.