Development of an Optimization Technique for a Potential Surface of Spatial Urban Growth Using Deterministic Modeling Methodology

This study developed the weighted scenario method (WSM) using the analytic hierarchical process (AHP) method that can optimize the weighting value for multiple criteria to make a grid-based potential surface. The potential surface has been used to simulate urban expansion using distributed cellular automata models and to generate land-use planning as basic data. This study formulated the WSM-AHP method mathematically and applied it to the test region, Suwon City, which is located in the south of Seoul, Korea, with time series land-use maps of 1986 and 1996. The WSM-AHP method generates a potential map for each pair of weighting value for all criteria, one of which is weighted with a high weighting value. The others use a low weighting value, considering that the summation for all criteria weighting values should be “1.” The potential change rate to the step of the weighted scenario for the weighting value of criteria is standardized like the AHP intensity matrix in this study. From the standard potential change rate, the WSM-AHP intensity matrix is completed, and then the optimal weighting value is calculated from the maximum eigenvector of the WSM-AHP matrix, according to the new WSM-AHP method developed in this study. The applied results of the new method showed that the optimal weighting value from WSM-AHP is more reasonable than the general AHP specialists’ evaluation for the weighting value. This study also analyzed the sensitivity of the WSM-AHP method according to a variation of nonlinear exponents for accessibility criteria, which are used to make urbanization potential maps with the optimal weighting value for multiple criteria in the grid-based geographic information system technique. This study tried also to develop WSM-AHP2, which is simplified by using a ranking of the potential value for each scenario. The results of this study showed that WSM-AHP and simplified WSM-AHP2 can be used to generate the optimal potential maps for land-use planning in the urban fringe area.