Modeling groundwater potential using GIS and remote sensing under different land management scenarios in Bahir Dar City Ethiopia for sustainable management

Abstract Groundwater is a vital natural resource and a key source of freshwater for national development. However, identifying groundwater potential zones remains challenging due to their hidden nature and spatial variation in quality. This study aims to identify groundwater potential zones under different land management scenarios using GIS and remote sensing technologies in Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia. Groundwater potential was modeled in ArcGIS using factors like slope, rainfall, drainage, geology, soil, land use, and groundwater depth. Four land management scenarios were evaluated: baseline, agricultural expansion, urbanization, and reforestation. Factor weights were derived using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on expert input and literature. Based on the results, groundwater potential zones in Bahir Dar City varied across land management scenarios. Under the baseline scenario, 65.2% of the area had moderate, 31.9% high, and 1.1% very high groundwater potential, while 1.9% had low potential. In the agricultural expansion scenario, 77.2% was moderate, 19.8% high, 0.9% very high, and 2.1% low. Under urbanization, 70.2% was moderate, 23.7% high, 1% very high, and 5.1% low. In the reforestation scenario, 60.7% was moderate, 36.6% high, 1% very high, and 1.7% low. Accordingly, agricultural expansion and urbanization should be carefully managed due to their adverse impacts on groundwater potential, whereas reforestation is encouraged for its positive effects on groundwater recharge in the study area.