The uncertainties of probabilistic LV network analysis

The anticipated impact of low-carbon technology and the advent of the Smart Grid has provoked increased interest in the low voltage (LV) power distribution networks. Probabilistic and long period time-series analysis of LV networks is becoming increasingly common, as is the use of unbalanced, three-phase network modeling. This paper reviews some recent approaches to probabilistic analysis of LV networks and considers the uncertainty introduced by the underlying assumptions. A specific case study analysis of electric vehicle (EV) penetration on a generic UK distribution network is used to investigate the effect of key assumptions on the results of a probabilistic analysis. The paper concludes that probabilistic LV network analysis is a powerful tool for distribution network planning, however the trade-offs between imperfect modeling data and the reliability of results need to be well understood and incorporated into the interpretation of results.