GIS-based Prognosis of Potential Forest Regeneration Affecting Tourism Locations and Cultural Landscapes in South Norway

The Norwegian landscape is changing as a result of forest regeneration within the cultural landscape, and forest expansion has impacts on accessibility, visibility, and landscape aesthetics, thereby affecting the country's tourism industry. This study aimed at identifying the potential areas of forest regeneration and anticipated subsequent landscape effects on different categories of tourist locations in southern Norway. Deforested areas with a potential for forest regeneration were identified from several map sources by GIS-analyses, and 180 tourist locations were randomly selected from the Norwegian national tourism database (Reiselivsbasen), and then buffered by 2 km radius for land cover classes. The findings revealed that approximately 15% of southern Norway has the climatic potential for future forest regeneration, in addition to 5% of cultivated land. Future forest regeneration will affect the landscapes surrounding the tourist locations of rural south Norway, and while the potential is nationwide, it is not uniformly distributed. Two important tourist landscape regions seem especially exposed to forest regeneration: the coastal heath region and the mountain landscapes. Large parts of these areas do not have sufficient numbers of domestic grazing animals necessary to maintain the present character of the landscape.