Sibling similarity in education and employment trajectories at ages 16–19 in the UK: The role of parental influence and individual experiences in early adolescence

Young people’s early education and employment trajectories (EET) hold profound implications for either perpetuating or alleviating social inequalities across the life course. Family background plays an instrumental role in shaping these trajectories, but we have little understanding of how similar or different these trajectories are between siblings and which early adolescent experiences are associated with individual trajectories. Using the UK Household Longitudinal Study, this paper explored how individual early adolescent experiences (ages 10-15) influence siblings' EET in late adolescence (ages 16-19). We used a combination of sequence and cluster analysis to create a typology of trajectories, compare these outcomes on three analytic samples – the related siblings, conditionally assigned unrelated peers and randomly matched unrelated peers – and then used a multivariable regression approach to determine the extent to which trajectories among siblings are shaped by individual early adolescent experiences. Siblings exhibited a greater tendency to follow similar post-16 EET compared to unrelated peers, including those coming from similar backgrounds, highlighting persistent effects of the family of origin. However, siblings often diverge onto different trajectories, pointing to the role of individual experiences in the process of status attainment within the family. Thus, adolescents’ positive educational aspirations and feeling of family support emerged as significant predictors of favourable EET outcomes. Overall, this study highlights that early life course trajectories and the process of status attainment within the family are shaped by a complex interaction of family circumstances and individual experiences. • Siblings followed more similar EET at ages 16-19 compared to unrelated peers. • Siblings from more privileged backgrounds were more likely to stay in education. • Siblings from less privileged backgrounds had higher chances of following more turbulent EET. • Adolescents’ positive educational aspirations predicted more favourable EET outcomes. • Feeling of family support was also associated with more favourable EET outcomes.