The Politics of "Ideational Policy"

Increasingly, technical models or "idea sets" are playing a prominent role in the crafting of public policy. Few framework exist in political science for the categorization and analysis of such models, yet their impact upon the policy process may someday be profound. This essay argues that the organization of policy ideas--as systems of central definitions, axioms, and deductive propositions--can be as important to the policy process as their content. In particular, idea sets that feature vague core concepts surrounded by formalized and long-linked deductive chains can be a source of considerable policy instability. This possibility is examined within the context of nuclear weapons procurement policy conducted under the intellectual rubric of deterrence theory. An argument is made for a "protected ambiguity" in connection with the use of technical models in public undertakings. This argument has important implications for the future of policy analysis as an effort to "rationalize" the process of public policy making.