Climate warming effects on grape and grapevine moth ( Lobesia botrana ) in the P alearctic r egion

The grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is the principal native pest of grape in the P alearctic region. In the present study, we assessed prospectively the relative abundance of the moth in E urope and the M editerranean B asin using linked physiologically‐based demographic models for grape and L. botrana . The model includes the effects of temperature, day‐length and fruit stage on moth development rates, survival and fecundity. Daily weather data for 1980–2010 were used to simulate the dynamics of grapevine and L. botrana in 4506 lattice cells across the region. Average grape yield and pupae per vine were used as metrics of favourability. The results were mapped using the grass Geographic Information System ( http://grass.osgeo.org ). The model predicts a wide distribution for L. botrana with highest populations in warmer regions in a wide band along latitude 40° N . The effects of climate warming on grapevine and L. botrana were explored using regional climate model projections based on the A1B scenario of an average +1.8 °C warming during the period 2040–2050 compared with the base period (1960–1970). Under climate change, grape yields increase northwards and with a higher elevation but decrease in hotter areas. Similarly, L. botrana levels increase in northern areas but decrease in the hot areas where summer temperatures approach its upper thermal limit.