Evolution of the ‘production-living-ecological’ spatial pattern and response of ecosystem service values in karst tourism areas based on the intPLUS-Geodetector model: evidence from Anshun city, China

Karst tourism areas exhibit both ecological fragility and tourism economic dependence. This study focuses on its production-living-ecological space (PLES), Using land use data from 1995, 2005, 2015 and 2025, we innovatively coupled the Geodetector and intPLUS models to analyze 30-year PLES evolution characteristics and ESV response mechanisms. Four scenarios—natural development priority (NDP), ecological protection priority (EPP), urban development priority (UDP) and tourism-driven priority (TDP)—were established to simulate PLES distribution and ESV trends in Anshun city for 2035. Results revealed dramatic PLES changes: grassland increased by 39,400 ha while forest decreased by 44,900 ha; agricultural space shrank by 11,600 ha; industrial-mining space expanded 37-fold. ESV exhibited an inverted V-shaped trend, peaking in 2015 before declining. Geodetector identified tourism facility density as surpassing traditional drivers, revealing ‘tourism-centric’ and ‘topography-defying’ evolution mechanisms. Multi-scenario simulations demonstrated that the TDP scenario achieves an optimal balance between ESV conservation and tourism development requirements.