Why the study?
Nearly 20 years after the 2000 target for eradication, live polioviruses continue to circulate across all three serotypes, posing challenges for the polio endgame.
Population
Global population stratified into 72 blocks of 10 subpopulations of approximately 10.7 million people
Design
Global differential equation-based transmission and stochastic risk modeling study
Follow-up
2019-2023
Authors
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Prompts urgent review of polio strategies and timelines; leaves open whether intensified measures can meet eradication targets.
Updated dynamic modeling suggests the Global Polio Eradication Initiative is not on track to achieve its 2023 eradication goals for wild poliovirus 1 or OPV2-related viruses.
Kalkowska et al. (2020) studied this question.