The Determinants of 1963–77 Regional Manufacturing Growth: Why the South and West Grow*

This paper analyzes 1963–77 manufacturing employment growth in the 48 contiguous states. Six factors jointly explain 96 percent of the variance. Markets explains 55 percent; climate, 15 percent; a rural state attraction, 11 percent; unionization, 6 percent; thresholds, 5 percent; and amenities, 4 percent. Resources, taxes, and business climate lack significance. Sunbelt‐Frostbelt is a false dichotomy: the Northwest grew as fast as the South. The real contrast–largely caused by markets–is between growth rates of 6 percent in the Manufacturing Belt, 35 percent in its bordering Transition Zone, and 58 percent in the combined South and West.