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October 1, 1986Journal of Political Economy242 citations

Price Destabilizing Speculation

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OHOliver HartDKDavid M. Kreps

Key Points

  • The paper examines the assertion that rational speculation stabilizes prices, arguing against this notion.
  • Analytical exploration of rational speculation under assumptions of identical priors and information access.
  • Examination of conditions necessary for price stabilization through speculative activities.
  • Rational speculative activity was shown to destabilize prices, contrasting with common expectations.
  • Extreme conditions are required for speculation to stabilize prices, even minimally.

Abstract

It is sometimes asserted that rational speculative activity must result in more stable prices because speculators buy when prices are low and sell when they are high. This is incorrect. Speculators buy when the chances of price appreciation are high, selling when the chances are low. Speculative activity in an economy in which all agents are rational, have identical priors, and have access to identical information may destabilize prices, under any reasonable definition of destabilization. It takes extremely strong conditions to ensure that speculative activity (of the commodity storage variety) "stabilizes" price, even in a very weak sense.

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Cite This Study

Hart et al. (1986) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a1d32faba3016ff712f3c7dhttps://doi.org/10.1086/261418
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