Gaussian process regression models for the properties of micro-tearing modes in spherical tokamaks

Spherical tokamaks have many desirable features that make them an attractive choice for a future fusion power plant. Power-plant viability is intrinsically related to plasma heat and particle confinement, and this is often determined by the level of micro-instability-driven turbulence. Accurate calculation of the properties of turbulent microinstabilities is therefore critical for tokamak design; however, the evaluation of these properties is computationally expensive. The considerable number of geometric and thermodynamic parameters and the high resolutions required to accurately resolve these instabilities make repeated use of direct numerical simulations in integrated modeling workflows extremely computationally challenging and create the need for fast, accurate, reduced-order models. This paper outlines the development of a data-driven reduced-order model, often termed a surrogate model for the properties of micro-tearing modes (MTMs) across a spherical tokamak reactor-relevant parameter space utilizing Gaussian process regression and classification, techniques from machine learning. These two components are used in an active learning loop to maximize the efficiency of data acquisition, thus minimizing computational cost. The high-fidelity gyrokinetic code GS2 is used to calculate the linear properties of the MTMs: the mode growth rate, frequency, and normalized electron heat flux, and core components of a quasi-linear transport model. Data cross-validation and direct validation on unseen data are used to ascertain the performance of the resulting surrogate models.