The Dynamics of Specialization in Juvenile Offenses

A major step forward in the statistical analysis of offense specialization was made by Wolfgang et al. through their use of stochastic modeling. However, this paper proposes that the results that were obtained are not as clear as might be hoped because they did not distinguish between offense dynamics that reflected the marginal distributions of the sample as a whole (and thus may be considered random) and dynamics that significantly deviated from this distribution. An analysis of similar longitudinal data for white and nonwhite delinquents shows statistically significant evidence of offense specialization and a random distribution of offenses if no specialization occurs (with one major exception). The implications and problems of the model are discussed. The importance of the idea of offense specialization to the development of juvenile delinquency theory has been long recognized in sociology and criminology. One of the first researchers to collect pertinent data, systematically, on this matter was Clifford Shaw, who used very detailed case study material to highlight the dynamics of social processes that were associated with the patterns of adolescent illegal behavior. These dynamics became a central theme in much of Shaw's work, for he felt that a delinquent act is part of a dynamic life process, and it is artificial to view it except as an integral part of that process (b, 8). Several of his published studies have become classics in the social sciences (a, b, c). The incredible richness of detail found in these reports often leaves the reader with the impression of being privy to an intimate view of the growth and development of the behavior patterns of these youth. Unfortunately, the generalizability of these studies to the population of adolescent offenders was not clear, since the selection of a youth for a case study was based on a far from random process. For example, *The data for this paper are taken from those used in the author's dissertation while at the University of Chicago. I would like to express my gratitude to Donald J. Bogue, James S. Coleman, and Gerald Suttles of the University of Chicago, and Tony Meade of the Institute for Juvenile Research for helpful comments and criticisms. ? 1980, University of North Carolina Press. 0037-7732/80/030851-64$01.40