‘Thin’ loyalty and declining attachment to the African National Congress

The African National Congress (ANC) has been an electorally dominant party in South African politics since 1994, with its vote share peaking in 2004 before falling to a low in the most recent 2019 general elections. Simultaneously, there have been much sharper declines in levels of ANC partisanship and assessments of government performance among the party's own voters. This presents a puzzle: Why do a significant share of ANC voters continue to support a party that they do not 'feel close' to and do not believe is adequately managing the economy or the delivery of public goods? Based upon original qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with 111 intended ANC voters, I argue that there is a sizeable portion of ANC voters whose connection to the party is characterised by a conditional loyalty that falls short of a more thoroughgoing partisanship. The persistence of 'thin' loyalty alongside habitual and strategic voting for the ANC – especially among the 'born free' generation – has obfuscated the extent of decline in the perceived efficacy of voting and overall satisfaction with the outcomes of democratic politics.