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Abstract This study presents a quantitative assessment of how doubled Saharan dust emissions alter solar photovoltaic potential (PVP) across Africa, utilizing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. Under a 2xdust scenario, annual PVP reductions of 5%–10% were observed in highly affected regions like the Sahara and Sahel, driven by significant decreases in surface downwelling shortwave radiation (RSDS) of up to 20 W m −2 . Our analysis systematically separates direct dust radiative forcing from indirect cloud-mediated effects, demonstrating that aerosol–cloud interactions amplify solar energy losses beyond direct scattering alone. Regional classification reveals arid Sahara regions show PVP decreases (−2.81% ± 1.73%) primarily through direct radiative attenuation, whereas humid Sahel regions experience nearly doubled losses (−4.85% ± 3.70%) where dust enhances cloud formation. Seasonal analysis revealed peak PVP losses during spring and summer, with reductions exceeding 6% in localized areas, coinciding with maximum dust optical depth (DOD) increases of 0.3–0.5. The multi-model ensemble demonstrated a strong correlation ( R 2 = 0.72) between PVP losses and DOD, highlighting the critical role of atmospheric dust in attenuating solar radiation. However, the relationship between dust emissions and PVP loss is non-linear, reflecting complex interactions involving particle size distribution, transport, and deposition. Temperature changes due to dust-induced cooling averaged −0.5 °C across the Sahara-Sahel, partially offsetting PV cell temperature effects, but insufficient to counteract RSDS reductions. Models treating dust as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) predicted higher RSDS reductions (−5.1 W m −2 ) compared to non-CCN models (−4.1 W m −2 ), emphasizing the importance of aerosol–cloud interactions. Policymakers must consider dust effects when planning African solar energy investments.
Adigun et al. (Thu,) studied this question.