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Finding an overall linear trend is a common method in scientific studies. It is almost a requirement when one intends to study variability. Nevertheless, when dealing with long climate temporal series, fitting a straight line only seldom has a relevant meaning. This paper proposes and describes a new methodology for finding overall trends, and, simultaneously, for computing a new set of climate parameters: the breakpoints between periods with significantly different trends. The proposed methodology uses a least‐squares approach to compute the best continuous set of straight lines that fit a given time series, subject to a number of constraints on the minimum distance between breakpoints and on the minimum trend change at each breakpoint. The method is tested with three climate time series.
Tomé et al. (Thu,) studied this question.
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