Projection of the Climate-Suitable Area of the Invasive Pest Phoracantha semipunctata (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae: Phoracantha) and Its Ability to Continue to Expand in China

Phoracantha semipunctata is a global quarantine pest, which is fatal to various tree species of the Eucalyptus. Currently, this pest has landed and colonized Guangdong province, China. Previously, there was very limited research information on P. semipunctata in China, which basically describes the taxonomic status. Field investigations found that the climatic ecological niche of the pest is continuing to expand. With global warming and the globalization of trade, signs of expansion may intensify the spread. In order to prevent any further spread of P. semipunctata, it is important to clarify its geographic distribution in China. In this study, the algorithm Random Forests was used to project the potential geographic distribution of P. semipunctata in China currently and in the future. Our results showed that temperature seasonality (Bio4) and the precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) are key environmental factors limiting the current distribution of P. semipunctata in China. Currently, P. semipunctata has been found in Guangdong province, colonizing in the triangle zone composed of Zhanjiang City, Qingyuan City, and Jieyang City, with the projected potential suitable distribution area of 50.88 × 104 km2. Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable distribution area is projected to increase, from Fujian province toward the north to Guangxi province toward the north. Building on these results, we predicted the potential future spread pattern of P. semipunctata and developed priority measures for its management. These findings provide a theoretical basis for designing effective quarantine and control strategies against P. semipunctata.