Adapt or Abandon: Demographic Shocks and Principal Turnover

Given that principals stand at the precipice between policy, the student body, and the community, this article examines the relationship between demographic shocks and principal turnover. In observing more than seven thousand schools in Texas over a seventeen-year period, hazard model results demonstrate that short-term demographic changes are significantly associated with increased principal turnover risk, particularly for changes in the proportion of Students of Color. Results further imply that White and suburban principals were the most sensitive to these changes, suggesting the need for additional training and support to ensure stable leadership for schools undergoing shocks in student composition.