Comparative Analysis Using Supervised Learning Methods for Anti-Money Laundering in Bitcoin

With the advance of Bitcoin technology, money laundering has been incentivised as a den of Bitcoin blockchain, in which the user's identity is hidden behind a pseudonym known as address. Although this trait permits concealing in the plain sight, the public ledger of Bitcoin blockchain provides more power for investigators and allows collective intelligence for anti-money laundering and forensic analysis. This fascinating paradox arises in the strength of Bitcoin technology. Machine learning techniques have attained promising results in forensic analysis, in order to spot suspicious behaviour in Bitcoin blockchain. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the performance of classical supervised learning methods using a recently published data set derived from Bitcoin blockchain, to predict licit and illicit transactions in the network. Besides, an ensemble learning method is utilised using a combination of the given supervised learning models, which outperforms the given classical methods. This experiment is performed using a newly published data set derived from Bitcoin blockchain. Our main contribution points out that using ensemble learning approach outperforms the performance of the classical learning models used in the original paper, using Elliptic data set, a time series of Bitcoin transaction graph with node transactions and directed payments flow edges. Using the same data set, we show that we are able to predict licit/illicit transactions with an accuracy of 98.13% and F1 score equals to 83.36% using the proposed method. We discuss the variety of supervised learning methods, and their capabilities of assisting forensic analysis, and propose future work directions.