A comprehensive analysis of human and livestock attacks in the Ngorongoro Conservation Area in Northern, Tanzania: Patterns, determinants and management strategies

To alleviate the negative impacts related to human and livestock attacks from wild animals, detailed information on such incidents is important. We investigated the attacks by wild animals on humans and livestock in the Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA), Northern Tanzania, over a period of nine years (2015-2023). We utilized data from monthly reports to identify patterns based on factors such as human age, gender, time of day, livestock types, attacking species, proximity to forests, and mitigation measures. Using zero-truncated negative binomial regression models (i.e. accounting for the lack of data on the absence of elephant deaths), the study evaluated several predictors of wildlife attacks. Buffaloes ( Syncerus caffer ) were the species most frequently involved in attacks on humans. Proximity to forests influenced attack likelihood, showing lower risk at intermediate distances to forests. Human age was a critical factor, as children were more vulnerable to attacks compared to adults. We also found substantial variation in the severity of attacks (i.e. whether the outcome was injury or lethal) dependent on the attacking animal, lethal outcomes were more often associated with elephant attacks. Lions were the main predators of livestock, attacking more during daytime grazing, indicating a departure from typical nocturnal predator behavior. Sheep and goats were especially vulnerable due to their size, grazing practices and herd movements. Our results emphasize the complexity of human-wildlife interactions and the necessity for tailored conservation strategies, including enhanced livestock management practices and community education to mitigate risks, particularly concerning buffalo attacks and the protection of vulnerable populations.