Intelligence is widely misunderstood. Too much is made of secrecy, and of covert operations and counter-intelligence (action domains informed by intelligence rather than integral to it). Intelligence is often focused on threats, missing opportunities for advantage. A standard definition is proposed for better understanding of intelligence by the academy, media and public. Intelligence is a corporate capability to forecast change in time to do something about it. The capability involves foresight and insight, and is intended to identify impending change which may be positive, representing opportunity, or negative, representing threat. Definitions which converge with this proposal are found in several intelligence settings. Acknowledgements I drew particular strength for this project from three publications concerning intelligence theory. All three serve to illuminate the domain within which any new proposal for a standard definition must be tested. Loch Johnson's article, 'Bricks and Mortar for a Theory of Intelligence', published in 2003,Footnote25 provides a valuable survey of the concepts which shape intelligence. It embodies several ideas which are argued in this article (intelligence as a function of government, conducted in secrecy, for example), but was my first encounter with the broad sweep of intelligence theory. In 2005, the RAND Corporation convened a workshop aimed at better understanding of intelligence, in collaboration with the Office of the US Secretary of Defence. The resulting report, prepared under the leadership of Gregory Treverton, is entitled 'Toward a Theory of Intelligence: Workshop Report'.Footnote26 And, most recently, Intelligence Theory; Key Questions and Debates, edited by Peter Gill, Stephen Marrin and Mark Phythian, is an important collection of essays on several aspects and issues of intelligence theory.Footnote27 Notes 1<http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/intelligence> (accessed 30 July 2011). 2<http://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/british/intelligence_1 (accessed 30 July 2011). 3<http://www.vetta.org/definitions-of-intelligence/> (accessed 30 July 2011). This site has since been discontinued. Legg's thesis, Machine Super Intelligence, apparently contains the definitions cited here, and is available through <http://www.vetta.org/2008/07/machine-super-intelligence/> (accessed 25 June 2012). 4Arthur Hulnick, 'What's Wrong with the Intelligence Cycle?', Intelligence and National Security 21 (2006) pp.959–97. 5Brigadier-General (Retired) James Cox, Lighting the Shadows: An Evaluation of Theory and Practice in Canadian Defence Intelligence, PhD thesis (Royal Military College of Canada 2011). 6Johnson, Treverton, Gill et al., cited in references 1, 2 and 3. 7Brigadier-General Walter J. Dabros, Director General Intelligence and Security, 1977–1978, in conversation with the author. 8Personal correspondence with the author. 9Prime examples are Jan Herring, who was recruited from CIA to set up Motorola's competitive intelligence function, and Ben Gilad, who was introduced to intelligence in the Israeli military. Herring and Gilad are today among the leaders of Competitive Intelligence. 10<http://www.aurorawdc.com/whatisci.htm> (accessed 5 August 2011). 11<http://www.fuld.com/Tools/RefCenter.html> (accessed 5 August 2011). 12<http://www.scip.org/> (accessed 5 August 2011). 13Cox is drawing here from Philip Davies, 'Ideas of Intelligence: Divergent National Concepts and Institutions' in C. Andrew, R.J. Aldrich, and W.K. Wark (eds.) Secret Intelligence: A Reader (London/New York: Routledge 2009) ch.2. 14Mark M. Lowenthal, Intelligence from Secrets to Policy, 3rd ed. (Washington DC: CQ Press 2006). 15Michael Warner, 'Wanted: A Definition of "Intelligence"', Studies in Intelligence 46 (2002) pp.15--22. 16Warner has provided further valuable discussion of the nature of intelligence in his chapter, Michael Warner, 'Intelligence as Risk Shifting' in P. Gill, S. Marrin, and M. Phythian (eds.) Intelligence Theory; Key Questions and Debates (Oxford: Routledge 2009) pp.16--32. 17Michael Herman, Intelligence Services in the Information Age (Oxford/New York: Frank Cass Publishers 2001); Michael Herman, Intelligence Power in Peace and War (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 1996). 18Michael Herman, 'Why Does Military Intelligence Matter?', Changing Character of War Seminar, Oxford, 27 November 2007 <http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/OIG2/herman%20 paper%202007.pdf> (accessed 1 August 2011). 19Natalia Derbentseva, Lianne McLellan, and David R. Mandel, of Defence R&D Canada, Issues in Intelligence Production, Summary of interviews with Canadian managers of intelligence analysts. Technical Report, DRDC Toronto TR 2010-144, December 2010. 20'Joint Intelligence', Joint Publication 2-0, 22 June 2007, p.ix <http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/dod/jp2_0.pdf > (accessed 13 August 2011). 21Informal debate during a panel on Intelligence Theory, featuring Warner, Cox and Breakspear, at the 2011 Annual International Conference of the Canadian Association for Security and Intelligence Studies (CASIS), held in Ottawa on 9–10 November 2011. 22Justice Issues, an article of the Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA), a component of the Office of Justice Programs, US Department of Justice <http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/BJA/topics/ilp.html> (accessed 6 August 2011). 23<http://www.icjcanada.org/en/documents/doc_2011-03-03.pdf> (accessed 18 December 2011). 24Bruce Berkowitz, 'Commentary: The Big Difference between Intelligence and Evidence', Washington Post, 2 February 2003 <http://rand.org/commentary/020203WP.html> (accessed 13 August 2011). 25Loch Johnson, 'Bricks and Mortar for a Theory of Intelligence', Comparative Strategy 22 (2003) pp.1–28. 26<http://www.rand.org/pubs/conf_proceedings/2006/RAND_CF219.pdf> (accessed 13 August 2011). 27P. Gill, S. Marrin, and M. Phythian (eds.), Intelligence Theory; Key Questions and Debates (Oxford: Routledge 2009).
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Alan Breakspear (2012) studied this question.